ROI Potential (Bets, Best Ball and Dynasty Picks)

By Dan Rosier (@theBleagueSays)

April 14, 2019

Back Row Show Bandits!

Can you feel it?

I can feel it.

I can feel the hype building around April 25th, and I can feel Nashville is about to put on a show for the 2019 Rookie Draft class.

Yes, we are mere days away from the 2019 NFL rookie draft taking place. Plus, start-up Dynasty Drafts have recently finished or are currently still taking place. Fantasy rookie drafts and rankings sheets alike are starting to heat up. On top of that, best ball season is lighting up (hey, get in on this now; you would be brutally shocked at some of the value floating around), and exotic bets are being placed. For all intents of fantasy football purposes, there is a stack of value currently on the table for you to take, while the majority of casual ‘gamers/betters’ are on the fritz until a few weeks out of the traditional #redraftSZN this August.

Hey! I heard that! There’s that groan again. You’re worried I’m going to start on the ‘3 V’s’ of Value, Volume and Validation again aren’t you?

I’m not going there. Calm down.

No, that piece of unripe fruit in @TheBLeagueSays writing bag is somewhat in the compost heap, but to prove a point I will fertilize the soil with goodness rich with knowledge when I need to. Look, betting and drafting guys before the rookie draft could be a risk for sure, but right now that’s where the sweet spot for greater rewards lies. That’s why it’s called gambling, isn’t it?

This week I decided to open the door on a few of these parts of fantasy football gaming, just in case you didn’t know such things were going on around you. Just as iron sharpens iron, this can only make your tools that much sharper as the year progresses on, making you that much more knowledgeable when crunch time happens. Yes, my ‘compost analogy’ has come full circle, by telling you that planting the ‘information’ seeds now, fertilize with that ‘knowledge’ compost so you can pick the fruits of your labor when selecting your team when the season arrives.

For example a few bets that could float your boat right now - considering the hype train for the Browns has already left the station (let’s not kid ourselves it took off a few weeks ago, thanks Dave Gettleman, you jerk), it doesn’t mean you can’t get on their value before they reach their final destination in 2019. The Cleveland Browns to win a playoff game is currently paying $5.00, which seems safe because they seem the most stable franchise in the AFC North (imagine saying that a year ago) but the second they get off to a hot start will see that come in significantly. Logically, you could make the case that the Browns will win their division, so to win a playoff game next season doesn’t seem too farfetched, does it? We all know that AFC North football is brutal, but that looks like a nice option for you getting started. If you’re looking for something a tad tastier, Odell Beckham, Jr is currently paying $26.00 to lead the league in Total Receiving Yards and Total Receptions which is also on the table. This is something that could be in his range of outcomes. Hell, he produced big numbers with Eli Manning, so having Baker Mayfield in your back pocket should be a as close to a lock as it can get.

I was in a few Best Ball drafts this week, and considering the potential mess that Tyreek Hill may have possibly put himself and the Kansas City Chiefs in (look, I’m not here to speculate on things outside of Fantasy Football - that’s not what I’m here to do), I was stunned to see wide receiver counterpart Sammy Watkins fall to me, numerous times, in the seventh round or later. Now, as you might know, I was telling everyone to calm down from the Sammy Watkins hype train last year. It was the right thing to say then and I still stand by it. But, things change. Circumstances change. Fantasy football constantly changes and I feel right now that Watkins was a victim of change in 2018, and unreasonably was he forced down our throats over his move to Kansas City from the Rams. His first year with what we would consider a ‘rookie’ quarterback in who we now reference as the 2018 M.V.P. in Pat Mahomes. But for him to fall to the seventh round with the potential of Tyreek Hill being possibly suspended? We have seen Watkins in the Kansas City system already, and we have seen him be the lead wide receiver in Buffalo. I think, that even if regression hits for Kansas City in 2019 that the way things are shaping up, Sammy Watkins could be a sneaky benefactor of this in a few months’ time. A potential lead receiver with Pat Mahomes in the seventh Round? I’ll take that all day - you should get on that, too. Yes, he will always carry the injury-prone stigma - but in Best Ball formats? I’m not worried even about when I do or don’t have to ‘play the matchup’, I just want to know what my guys' ceiling is and the way the path is shaping up Watkins could be a big-time player in this fantasy football format in 2019.

So, I have covered some Best Ball and I have covered some future/exotic bets. How about a dynasty steal?

I’m going to double-down on a previous article I had written a week ago on a guy ‘we’ are pretty much ‘down’ on. I have mentioned recently the potential obstacles in Corey Davis’ way to further success in fantasy football. For the most part, I still don’t believe any of the reasons blocking him from success are due to him being sub-par, quite the contrary as I still believe he is a fantastic, young talent. I mentioned before about guys we jumped a year early on, and I believe we all got on the Corey Davis hype train a year too early. It doesn’t mean, again, that we are wrong about the talent - just the circumstances. Now this year, as I have mentioned, that this is a contract year for Marcus Mariota, which means we need to see something more from him or there could well be changes. Either way, that can affect Davis.

Here is what I left off the table last week:

Davis has two years left on his contract, and he carries a relatively big cap hit in 2019. But in 2020? Davis carries only a $8m cap hit and at that point, if the Titans aren’t sold on their current play caller, could it be possible that Corey Davis is used as possible ‘trade bait’ to help the Tennessee Titans potential rebuild? Let’s play fantasy booking for a second - how about a reunion in Green Bay with former Offensive Coordinator Matt LaFleur, alongside Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams? I mean that could be a beautiful thing, right? I have mentioned before that Corey Davis’ ADP has been slipping of late, and if there are people out there that like to ‘play chess when others are playing checkers, then this could be a contrarian move in dynasty fantasy football that could help your squad in future years to come. Corey Davis right now is (I can’t believe I’m about to say this but) a buy-low target that you're essentially ‘stashing’ in the hopes that his environment changes by hook or by crook. Yet, while the hopes for change in his future are on the cards, he is still extremely useable in the upcoming season.

Crazy right?

That a guy we have selected as a WR3 last year (and finished as a high-end WR3 in 2018) and upon likeness in trends this year also in the same area will probably give us a similar season at worst. I can imagine all the casual fantasy football players/gamers coming back in a few months have the same mindset or frustrations from last season finished about how his season unfolded - it could push him further down draft boards, which can only be good in your negotiation process as you add young talent on your roster for future years to come.

And on that note, that will just about do me for this week!
Check out (@FootballNuke) Chris Foster and Matthew Bruening’s (@SportsfanaticMB) this offseason. There are some fantastic articles up and running which you can find here: https://www.backrowfantasyshow.com/writers.

If you haven’t already also (which would be shocking considering you’re on their website), give @Barkbackrow, @Armsbackrow, @Nealdrox, and @Onlyhere4brfs (congrats to the new guys Neil and Lambo - they’re doing a heck of a job also) a follow and get around @hucksbackrow for his fantastic DFS plays of the week during that season too!

Don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast and leave a review, share with as many people as possible - Like and Retweet! Do the right thing, go on - I dare you!

Shoutout to the following for references this week:

Mybookie.com, draft.com

But most of all, Enjoy!

(for entertainment purposes only)